Ahead of the Masters, golf writer Ben Coley ponders some of the big questions, including whether Rory McIlroy can complete a career grand slam.
How will the LIV Golf brigade fare?
There is no denying that LIV Golf has attracted a number of the best players in the sport. Following the marquee capture of Jon Rahm, they now have two of the 2023 major champions, plus the 2022 Open winner. No fewer than eight of the Masters renewals held since 2010 have gone to players who now perform under the banner of the Saudi-funded golf league.
Equally apparent is that, for some, making the switch has either had no impact on their ability to perform in major champions, or even a positive one. Rahm might have been a PGA Tour player at the time, but last year’s renewal saw Brooks Koepka share second with Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed finish in a share of fourth. Koepka in particular has no questions to answer: he went on to win the PGA Championship the following month.
On the other hand, Dustin Johnson admitted during an episode of Full Swing that his dedication had slipped somewhat. To his credit, he seemed eager to change that, urged on by Koepka’s exploits perhaps, and has won a tournament this year. Cam Smith also appears to have his game in better shape than it was towards the end of 2023, a year that saw him play well in the majors without looking like winning one of them, albeit he suffered a bout of food poisoning in Miami.
The unknowns are the two best players on the LIV Golf circuit, Rahm and Joaquin Niemann. Rahm hasn’t been as dominant as some might have expected, and it’s abundantly clear that he regrets the fact he’s not been able to take part in certain PGA Tour events. Having previously been in charge of his schedule, we do not yet know whether he’s prepared in a way he finds satisfactory. We do know he remains just as able; four months on LIV cannot change that, and he deserves to be considered among the favourites regardless.
For Niemann, the question is to what extent he has improved since he captured one of the biggest PGA Tour titles in 2022, and whether or not he can translate that back into major championships. He has played in 19 so far without making any kind of impact. In 2023, for the first time, he missed two cuts in four. Yet his Masters record is improving by the year and logic dictates that he’s ready to set a new personal best having won three of his last eight tournaments worldwide.
Ultimately, golf remains at its heart an individual pursuit. Each individual among those LIV golfers has their own strengths, some their own questions to answer, others their own point to prove. It was never the case that we would be able to draw firm conclusions on a collective based on a couple of years and a handful of majors. Judge each on his own merits, as best you can, and remember this is still all very new.
How hard will it be to beat Scottie Scheffler?
Extremely hard. It is no longer enough to say that Scottie Scheffler is ranked world number one, given that those rankings are so flawed at the moment, but it is beyond dispute that he really is the world’s best player. Nobody has performed like Scheffler has in 2024. In fact he’s been the best golfer in the sport over six months, 12 months, 18 months or two years.
With a game that is made for Augusta, one built on good decisions, rare and small misses, extraordinary control of distance and an even temper, Scheffler has almost everything in his favour. He even has the caddie, Ted Scott, who has won this tournament three times, more than any other caddie involved in the tournament this week.
He’s got a new putter, one that has generally looked good since Bay Hill, and you can argue he’ll benefit somehow from not having won in Houston, where that putter did just let him down in the end. Arriving here seeking a fourth win in succession might have been more difficult than having seen his winning run reset by the narrowest of second places.
Returning to Scott, he’ll recall Bubba Watson winning this title two years apart, and Scheffler’s 10th when defending his title last year was more evidence of how this major suits him best. There really aren’t any significant holes in his profile, but those opposing him can take heart from two factors above all others: the prospect of his putter causing more problems, and the fact that he ultimately is a one-time major champion at the moment.
Can McIlroy complete the career grand slam?
He is plainly capable of doing so, yes. Rory McIlroy’s profile is complicated and polarising but there is one aspect of it without ambiguity: he’s one of the very best golfers of his generation. Such players are capable of winning the Masters while still operating at an elite level, which McIlroy unequivocally is. Anyone who says he can’t or declares he won’t is probably not worth listening to.
Level-headed analysis of the pros and cons is the challenge and here’s my best attempt.
The negatives include the fact that he’s playing for history, which is always hard. I imagine if Brooks Koepka ever needs to win the Masters to complete the career slam, he might find it tricky. Remember, he bemoaned his own performance under pressure here last year, and in 2019 was among those who stepped aside to allow Tiger Woods to power to history. The closer you get, the harder it becomes. It’s definitely harder for him than winning another PGA Championship.
McIlroy has also had more attempts to win the Masters than all but one first-time champion in history. Experience of Augusta is generally a positive, but there’s a tipping point and McIlroy has perhaps now passed it. Everything he’s learned about this course could be outweighed by the knowledge that he’s been trying to win this for 15 years and counting. Only Sergio Garcia took 16 or more attempts.
Finally, 10 years without a major of any kind is something we can’t ignore. To win any major now would be a massive achievement in the circumstances, following close calls at St Andrews and in the US Open last June. To end the drought in this one above all others suddenly makes the mountain appear both steep and high. Imagine being Rory McIlroy entering the back-nine on Sunday with a chance, knowing this might be the last one you get.
The pros are no more complicated to unravel. McIlroy has an excellent course record despite that capitulation in 2011. He’s prepared well, with his approach play suddenly looking like a potential strength. Like many Masters champions, he has an early-year win to his name. You could even argue the competition is weaker than it at times has been, with so many players seeking their very best, even if Scheffler is a fearsome exception.
The answer remains yes, but as McIlroy knows all too well, that guarantees nothing. Winning would be by far the standout achievement of an already exceptional career.
What should we expect from Tiger Woods?
By now we know that Tiger Woods is not in anything like peak physical condition. It seems reasonable to declare that he’s categorically not in the shape required to cope with the demands of four days at Augusta National, one of the toughest walks in golf. Last year’s withdrawal may not be his last, that’s if he does keep coming back here for as long as he can stand.
We also know that Tiger Woods has achieved things beyond the comprehension of most athletes. He is the exception to every rule. Ever since his third or fourth regeneration, culminating in his 15th major championship on that famous week here at Augusta, my view has been that we should put predictions to the side and just enjoy whatever time we have left watching the greatest golfer of his generation, perhaps of all-time.
It should surprise nobody if he shoots something in the sixties on Thursday, just as it should surprise nobody if he’s fighting to break 80. Nobody but Woods knows the full truth of how he’s been hitting the ball at home and, more importantly, how he really feels during a round of golf. He’ll do his best to avoid showing weakness, because he will still believe this is a tournament he can win, that his fellow golfers are there to be beaten.
Who knows how Woods will play. We can only hope that it’s for 72 holes. That would be an achievement and a gift.
How will Augusta play this year?
Whisper it, but we could be looking at a firmer version of Augusta than has often been the case of late. As we saw in round two last year, cold and wet weather brings a different set of challenges, but the Masters is at its best when the sun shines and the ball makes a sound when it lands. And that is what is currently expected following an ideal winter and with the forecast glorious until some rain early on in the tournament.
Some will argue that this doesn’t help a player like McIlroy, or one like Koepka. I would disagree. In general any firming of the greens ought to help players who hit it long and high, who have played under these conditions before. Those who made their debuts in 2020 or beyond have hit very few approach shots to greens so inclined to reject them. In that November edition, Rahm told one debutant to forget everything he learns when he returns in April.
Above all else, for the viewer, regardless of who you happen to have bet on, the Masters experience is enhanced by this magnificent golf course being able to shine. This tournament has in various ways failed to deliver quite what has been promised every year since 2019. Five years on we may not have quite the storyline, but we should have quite the spectacle.
Sunday at the Masters can be one of the great days in sport and, with the sun shining and Augusta at its resplendent best, this one delivering rates the safest bet of the week.
