Iranian Ballistic Missiles Rain Down On Israel (Updated)

By on 02/10/2024 · 0 Comment

Iran has launched a large number of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets with significant numbers of projectiles seen careening into the ground in Israel.

Via X (Screencaptures)

Iran has begun its latest retaliation against Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles. Information is only now starting to emerge, but there have been serious concerns that Iran may be poised to strike Israel in support of the Hezbollah militant group, of which it is the main sponsor, as well as in vengeance for the assassination of Hamas’s top political leader in Tehran two months ago. You can get up to date with the situation on the ground in Lebanon leading up to this attack in this previous post.

The Israeli military had announced that missiles launched from Iran were headed toward Israel. Initial reports describe air raid sirens going off across the country.

In a post on X, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says that Israeli civilians are now waiting it out in bomb shelters.

Earlier today, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had warned Iran against becoming further embroiled in the conflict, saying there would be “serious consequences” were Tehran to launch another direct attack on Israel.

Initial reports suggest that at least 100 missiles have been launched toward Israel.

With details still scarce it remains to be seen how this latest attack will compare with the Iranian missile and drone barrage launched in April this year. On that occasion, Israeli air defenses, assisted by the U.S. military and other allies, succeeded in bringing down almost all of those incoming weapons.

Already, there are unconfirmed reports that Israeli Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 air defense systems are launching interceptor missiles to target incoming Iranian weapons.

Videos show what appear to be mass saturation attacks on localized targets. This is something we predicted would be the case this time around in order to overwhelm Israel’s very robust air and missile defense system. Exactly what was hit remains unclear, but many of the weapons, or large fragments of them, appeared to have impacted Israeli soil.

Update, 1:45 p.m. EST:

IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has issued the following statement about the Iranian strikes:

Dear citizens,

A short time ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel. You are asked to remain vigilant and follow the Home Front Command’s instructions precisely.

In the last few minutes, the Home Front Command has sent messages to mobile phones in certain areas with life-saving instructions, directing people to enter protected spaces. You must reach the safest protected space in your vicinity. Upon hearing a siren, immediately enter a protected space and remain there until further instructions are given.

The air defense system is fully operational, detecting and intercepting threats wherever necessary, even at this moment. However, the defense is not hermetic, and therefore it is essential to follow the Home Front Command’s instructions. You may hear explosions, which could be the result of interceptions or impacts.

Due to the variety of threats, alarms may be triggered in widespread areas. Stay updated on the instructions via the official pages of the Home Front Command and the IDF Spokesperson.

Continue to act responsibly and keep calm, as you have done so far, and make sure to follow the guidelines. We are strong and can handle this event as well.

The IDF is doing and will continue to do everything necessary to protect the civilians of Israel. The IDF is fully prepared for both defense and offense at peak readiness.

I will continue to provide updates on all developments.

Israeli Army Radio reports that takeoffs and landings have been halted at Ben Gurion International Airport. Furthermore, Iraq and Jordan have announced that their airspace is also now closed to normal air traffic.

In a message to the United Nations, Iran has provided its justification for the missile strikes and suggested that the attacks may be over, for now.

In a post on X, the Iranian mission to the United Nations said:

“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime — which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran — has been duly carried out.”

Update, 2:00 p.m. EST:

Israel has now reportedly reopened its airspace, suggesting that the Iranian missile attack is now over.

The Israeli military has also told residents across the country that they are “permitted to leave protected spaces.” This comes around an hour after the first ballistic missiles arrived over Israel. The IDF provided the following statement:

“Following the situational assessment, it was decided that it is now permitted to leave protected spaces in all areas across the country. We request that the public continue to follow the Home Front Command’s guidelines.”

In his latest televised address, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said there were no reports of injuries on the ground and that Iran is believed to have fired around 200 missiles.

Hagari added that the Israeli military is “fully prepared to defend and retaliate” to the Iranian attack, stressing that it would be in a “timely manner.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), responsible for Iran’s long-range missile forces, has claimed that the attacks today targeted important military targets.

Reportedly, missiles were launched from areas close to the Iranian cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz, Khorramabad, Arak, and others.

In a statement, the IRGC said that the missile attack was a retaliation for different assassinations carried out by Israel that targeted the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the IRGC’s own commander.

“In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and [IRGC commander Abbas] Nilforoushan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said.

The IRGC also warned Israel that any response to the attack regime would be met by more severe Iranian retaliation.

More videos have now emerged showing the Iranian missile barrage as it arrived in Israel, as well as some of the aftermath:

In a statement provided to the White House press pool, Washington has said that President Biden and Vice President Harris “are monitoring the Iranian attack against Israel from the White House Situation Room and receiving regular updates from their national security team. President Biden directed the U.S. military to aid Israel’s defense against Iranian attacks and shoot down missiles that are targeting Israel.”

The following video, purportedly taken in Amman, Jordan, appears to show the burning remains of an Iranian ballistic missile, most likely the spent booster section.

Update, 2:30 p.m. EST:

The first reports of injuries as a result of the strikes have begun to emerge.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing Israeli rescue services, two people were slightly wounded in Tel Aviv after the Iranian missile attack, while others were injured while making their way to air raid shelters.

While it’s too early to say with any certainty, the low casualty count so far does seem to suggest that the majority of the approximately 200 Iranian missiles were defeated by Israel’s comprehensive air defenses. You can read more about those defenses here.

The wreckage of other Iranian ballistic missiles — also likely the spent booster sections — are seen in the following videos, with the first example apparently being handled by celebrating Palestinians after it came down in the West Bank.

Update, 2:45 p.m. EST:

Early reports from the aftermath of the strikes suggest that U.S. Navy destroyers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean shot down some of the Iranian ballistic missiles. During the previous round of Iranian strikes on Israel, in April, U.S. warships fired Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) anti-missile interceptors, which marked the first use of those weapons against real incoming threats.

Update, 3:30 p.m. EST:

More details of the U.S. contribution to the defense of Israel against the Iranian attacks have been provided by Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder.

Ryder told reporters that nearly 200 Iranian ballistic missiles were launched, with some of these being brought down by U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyers including USS Bulkeley and USS Cole, which fired around a dozen interceptors, of undisclosed type.

Most of the Iranian missiles were dealt with by Israeli air defenses, which intercepted most with only minimal damage reported on the ground. Ryder said that he was not aware of any pre-warning of the Iranian attack and that, while assessments were still being carried out, only ballistic missiles appeared to have been involved.

Meanwhile, a Jordanian government source confirmed to TWZ that some of the Iranian missiles were intercepted by Jordan and came down in that country.

“Jordan remains steadfast in its determination to safeguard its airspace, taking all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and ensure the safety of its citizens,” the same source said. The number of missiles that landed and were intercepted was not disclosed, nor how they were intercepted, although more video footage is emerging showing, at the very least, missile booster stages purportedly in Jordan.

Ryder reiterated that Israel is conducting limited raids in Lebanon to protect citizens but he would not speculate on a hypothetical Israeli response directed against Iran.

The video below shows the impact of one of the missiles or parts of one, apparently coming down very close to an Israeli highway.

In a daily media briefing at the White House, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Iran’s attack on Israel appeared to have been defeated, although President Biden’s administration was still monitoring a “fluid” situation.

One of the targets of the Iranian missiles appears to have been the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency. Interestingly, reports from earlier today suggest that Hezbollah also targeted this same installation, using at least one example of the Fadi 4 ballistic missile, apparently used for the first time. That missile is said to have targeted Glilot Base near Tel Aviv, which is home to both the Mossad headquarters and the IDF’s Unit 8200, which provides signal intelligence (SIGINT).

Update, 4:00 p.m. EST:

In its latest assessment of the attacks, the IDF says that over 180 ballistic missiles were fired directly from Iranian soil at Israel.

“There were a small number of hits in the center of Israel, and other hits in Southern Israel. The majority of the incoming missiles were intercepted by Israel and a defensive coalition led by the United States,” said IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari.

“Iran’s attack is a severe and dangerous escalation. There will be consequences,” Hagari added.

“Our defensive and offensive capabilities are at the highest levels of readiness. Our operational plans are ready. We will respond wherever, whenever, and however we choose, in accordance with the directive of the government of Israel.”

There are reports of a single death in the West Bank. This is said to have been caused by debris from an Iranian missile, apparently a spent booster stage, at least based on related imagery of the scene.

An intriguing aspect of the strikes today is the activity by the Israeli Air Force (IAF), including what appears to have been a significant portion of its fleet of Boeing 707 aerial refueling tankers, as well as C-130 transports, which can also be configured as tankers. Publicly available flight-tracking software shows these aircraft on station off the Israeli coast, suggesting that they were supporting intense activity by IAF fighters. These may have been airborne to intercept any Iranian drones and cruise missiles that might have been headed toward Israel, or perhaps were put into the air for their own safety, if the IAF was expecting ballistic missiles to target its air bases.

It seems likely that Israeli air bases would have been among the targets of an Iranian attack of this kind although, at this point, there is absolutely no evidence to support claims from Tehran that multiple IAF F-35 stealth fighters were hit while on the ground.

Update: 5:00p.m. EST—

Netanyahu vows major payback for Iran’s missile barrage.

A stunning and sad video has emerged of a missile body falling on a man in Gaza. We cannot authenticate the video but there is nothing that outright indicates it is a fake:

We are now seeing some footage of high-altitude interceptions of the incoming ballistic missiles, similar to what we had seen in the April attack.

Now the question of how Israel will retaliate is front and center. Last time, with minimal damage, just as we predicted, Israel called it a win and didn’t retaliate directly. This time the damage is likely far worse. Many potential target sets exist, from striking proxy forces to direct attacks on Iran’s military, nuclear program and energy infrastructure. Going after their energy production and supply would be a likely option, but at this time what comes next isn’t clear. One thing is certain, any direct attack on Iranian assets in Iran using traditional military means would be unprecedented.

Update: 6:30 p.m. EST:

Israel has struck air defenses in eastern Syria. This is an odd move and could be to prepare for sending a large strike package or sustained operation farther east in a reprisal operation against Iran. Creating a corridor that is largely sanitized would be critical for even large standoff strikes against target in Iran.

The Defense Secretary of the UK has put out a release in support of Israel and stating the participated in its defense.

Iranian media showing the start of ‘Operation True Promise 2’:

Some interesting commentary out of Iranian leadership, stating they only went after high-priority military targets, including the home of the country’s F-35 force, as we predicted, and warns against a much larger counter-strike if Israel retaliates.

The threats are definitely becoming more elevated. Iran clearly knows its own energy infrastructure is the ripest target. The next escalation rung for Iran is going after infrastructure. The Dimona nuclear facility has always been the crown jewel as far as Iranian long-range targeting aspirations go.

Update: 9:45 p.m. EST—

A video shot from an airliner flying over Iran. Air traffic had no warning of the launch, causing chaos for aircraft flying over Iranian territory:

Flights were subsequently cancelled:

Jeffrey Lewis has some preliminary insights on the missiles used by Iran:

Maybe the most dramatic video of the attack so far:

More video, supposedly shot near Dimona:

Another taken close to an impact area:

The IDF says their operations are not effected, although this is somewhat expected in terms of messaging, the IAF is executing strikes tonight:

Geolocation of a primary launch site:

One of the craters caused by a Iranian ballistic missile impact:

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